Black Box Intelligence Data: Coronavirus and the Restaurant Industry
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Black Box Intelligence issued a report on Coronavirus and the Restaurant Industry. Among the key insights:
- In the market in which the first major outbreak occurred (Seattle), restaurant sales dropped by 10% during the initial week. However, this only includes a day or two of heightened public awareness. Real impact is expected to be over 20% in lost restaurant sales after one full week.*
*Source: Black Box Financial Intelligence™ - Full service restaurants in Washington are seeing the most negative effect in terms of lost sales, especially those that are more upscale.*
*Source: Black Box Financial Intelligence™ - Restaurant spending seems to be shifting away from full service restaurants towards limited service restaurants, at least initially.*** There is also an increase of to-go restaurant sales in the first market affected. Average to-go sales by restaurant location increased by 10.5% in Seattle during the week ending March 1.* These shifts seem to indicate that as concerns for the virus continue to rise, guests will likely favor quicker or off-premise dining experiences versus extended sit-down restaurant meals interacting with servers and sitting among other guests.
*Source: Black Box Financial Intelligence™
***Source: Black Box Consumer Intelligence™ - In Seattle restaurant spending from older guests (65+ years) dropped very significantly compared with their spending in the rest of the country during the week.*** This is the age group whose consumption is likely to be the most affected going forward as well.
***Source: Black Box Consumer Intelligence™ - Consumer data shows the categories that saw strong YOY growth in spending at the end of February were online grocery and meal kits.*** This could signal an upcoming trend as consumers shift more of their share-of-stomach spending towards options that allow them to avoid contact with other people while giving them more control over food preparation and hygiene.
***Source: Black Box Consumer Intelligence™ - Restaurant sentiment online is beginning to show heightened attention by guests to coronavirus related to food safety and cleanliness, as well as paying attention to signs of sickness among staff members.**
**Source: Black Box Guest Intelligence™ - Initial areas of concern for restaurant sales decline due to the outbreak include cities and states with rapidly number of confirmed coronavirus cases, markets that are popular destinations for international travelers, markets that are hosts to large events such as conferences and trade shows.
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